从哥本哈根气候变化大会看气候变化谈判的焦点问题及IPCC第五次评估报告的可能作用  

Focus of Climate Change Negotiations and Role of IPCC AR5 Perceived from Copenhagen Conference

作　　者：高云[1] 罗勇[2] 张军岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局科技与气候变化司,北京100081 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2010年第2期83-88,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家"十一五"支撑计划课题"执行<联合国气候变化框架公约>的支撑技术研究"之"IPCC重大问题研究"(2007BAC03A07)

摘　　要：从哥本哈根气候变化大会的谈判焦点可以预期,后续国际气候变化谈判的重点将是谈判的基础案文、发达国家在《京都议定书》第二承诺期进一步的量化减排承诺以及长期目标的表述等问题。IPCC第五次评估报告将对以往报告已阐述的科学问题和基本结论加以巩固并提供更有说服力的证据和论据,更加侧重区域问题,增加适应和减缓经济学成本、气候变化与可持续发展等内容的分析。关于气候变化检测和归因、气候变化影响和关键脆弱性、大气温室气体浓度稳定水平、适应的选择及其成本效益、减缓措施的选择和社会经济成本、责任分担机制及公平性等问题的评估结论,将对谈判进程的推进发挥重要作用。As expected from the focus of the climate change negotiation in the Copenhagen conference, what matters most to the follow-up international climate change negotiations will include the preparation of initial draft texts for negotiations, the further quantification of emission limitation or reduction commitments in the second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol by developed countries, the description of long-term goals and so on. The fifth assessment report （AR5） of IPCC will reinforce the scientific issues and fundamental conclusions elaborated and reached in previous reports with more convincing evidence and arguments, pay more attention to the regional aspect and give more words to the analysis of the economic costs of adaptation and mitigation, and of climate change and sustainable development. The conclusions drawn from the assessment of such issues as climate change detection and attribution, climate change impacts and key vulnerabilities, stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, adaptation options and their cost-effectiveness, mitigation options and socioeconomic costs, responsibility-sharing mechanism and equity will be a powerful driver to the negotiation progress.

关 键 词：哥本哈根 气候变化大会 气候变化谈判 IPCC第五次评估报告 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]