气候变化对我国农作物种植结构的影响  

Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Planting Structure in China

作　　者：李祎君[1] 王春乙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2010年第2期123-129,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30771248)

摘　　要：气候变化引起水热条件的变化,从而影响到我国农业生产的方方面面,人们采取不同措施以适应气候变化带来的各种影响。为了清楚地认识气候变化对我国主要粮食作物生产的影响以及适应措施,利用《中国农业统计年鉴》1980—2007年资料和1961—2007年全国逐日平均温度观测数据及前人的研究成果,分析了气候变化对我国三大粮食作物布局和种植结构的影响。结果表明,由于气候变暖,粮食作物种植比例变化明显。小麦种植比例对气候变化最为敏感,波动大;水稻种植比例变化南北方反向,且变化幅度趋缓;玉米种植比例持续增加,增幅加大。三大粮食作物种植结构变化均以2000年为分界点,呈现不同增减趋势。而作物熟制、复种指数也发生明显变化,种植北界持续北推。黑龙江地区大面积扩种水稻,原来的玉米优势种植区为水稻所替代。The water and heat conditions change resulted from climate change has strongly affected agricultural production, and famers take various kinds of measures to adapt to impacts of climate change. To further understand the effects of climate change on main grain crops and the adaptive measures taken by farmers, we analyzed changes in the planting structure of main grain crops based on the daily average temperature and the data from ＂China Agricultural Yearbook＂ published from 1980 to 2007 by National Bureau of Statistics as well as research results from literature. The results indicate that planting proportion changes of main grain crops were obvious on the nationwide scale from 1980 to 2007 as the result of the climate warming, the wheat planting proportion was more sensitive to climate change, and it fluctuated largely; the paddy rice planting proportion changed in opposite trends in northern and southern China, and its change has become slower; the corn planting proportion continued to increase, its change was enlarging; the planting structure of the three main grain crops （paddy rice, wheat and corn） all changed in 2000 with different increasing/declining trends. Furthermore, the crops ripe system and the multiple cropping index also changed obviously; the north boundary of crops planting has continuously moved northward. The winter wheat planting area in northern China in 2007 moved northward by nearly 100 km compared with the 1960s. The paddy rice planting area has greatly expanded in Heilongjiang Province, where the paddy rice has dominated in the original corn planting areas.

关 键 词：气候变化 种植结构 小麦 玉米 水稻 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学] P467[农业科学—农业基础科学]