Wiener过程性能退化产品可靠性评估的Bayes方法  

Bayesian method for reliability assessment of products with Wiener process degradation

作　　者：彭宝华[1] 周经伦[1] 潘正强[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2010年第3期543-549,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2006AA804806);国家自然科学基金(60701006;60804054)

摘　　要：在分析性能退化数据模型的基础上,针对Wiener过程性能退化产品提出了一种可靠性评估的Bayes方法,给出了参数的递推估计.该方法计算简单,并且能随着性能退化试验进行不断更新可靠性评估结果,而不需要重新处理历史数据,因而也适合于实时可靠性评估.最后通过金属化膜电容器可靠性评估实例分析验证了该方法的适用性,并进行了相关讨论.This paper presents a Bayesian method for reliability assessment of products whose performance degradation process are modeled by Wiener process.A recursive method for parameter estimation is proposed.Compared with existing maximum likelihood estimate procedure,the calculation of parameter estimation in this method is simple.Further more,the proposed method can update the reliability assessment result with new degradation test data without any consideration of old data.So the method is also suitable for real time reliability assessment.An example,the reliability assessment of metallized film capacitor,is given to show the validity.Some discussions are made and conclusion drawn.

关 键 词：可靠性评估 性能退化数据 WIENER过程 BAYES方法 金属化膜电容器 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]