基于通径分析的城市建设用地扩张研究——以武汉市为例  

Research on the Expansion of Urban Construction Land Based on Path Analysis:Taking Wuhan City as an Example

作　　者：梅昀[1] 邓胜华[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学土地管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2010年第2期9-14,共6页China Land Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金"城市土地集体利用潜力挖潜分析与政策选择研究"(09BZZ024)

摘　　要：研究目的:定量分析各驱动因素对城市建设用地扩张的直接与间接效应。研究方法:文献资料法,通径分析法,主成分分析法,回归分析法。研究结果:(1)经济发展对城市建设用地扩张的直接与间接效应分别为0.4638、0.0251、0.0511,人口增长分别为0.3149、0.1535、0.5317,城市化进程分别为0.4400、0.0365、0.5236;(2)经济发展与城市化进程(产业结构城市化、人口城市化)及两者的耦合作用是建设用地扩张的主要驱动力;(3)经济发展、人口增长主要驱动商住工用地扩张,城市化则侧重公共用地。研究结论:本研究对城市建设用地扩张与经济、人口、城市化之间的和谐发展具有参考价值。The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the direct and indirect effects of the driving factors on the expansion of urban construction land. Methods of documentation, path analysis, principal component analysis, and regression analysis were employed. The results indicate： （1）direct and indirect effects of economic development to the expansion of urban construction land are 0.4638, 0.0251 and 0.0511, respectively; direct and indirect effects of economic development to population growth are 0.3149, 0.1535 and 0.5317, respectively; and direct and indirect effects of economic development to urbanization are 0.4400, 0.0365 and 0.5236, respectively;（2）economic development and urbanization （in terms of industrial structure and population） and their coupling effect are the main driving forces of the expansion of construction land;（3）land expansions for commercial, residential and industrial uses are mainly driven by economic development and population growth, meanwhile public land expansion is mainly driven by urbanization. It is concluded that this research has certain reference values for the coordination amongst built-up area expansion, economic developments, population growth and urbanization.

关 键 词：土地管理 城市建设用地扩张 通径分析 主成分分析 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]