基于相似系数和R/S分析方法的闽台产业同构性  

Empirical study on industrial isomorphism comparing Fujian and Taiwan provinces by the similar coefficient and R/S

作　　者：韦素琼[1] 陈艳华[2] 耿静嬛[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州350007 [2]海南师范大学教务处,海口571158

出　　处：《地理研究》2010年第3期491-499,共9页Geographical Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究规划基金项目(09YJA790044);福建省自然科学基金项目(2008J0128);福建省教育厅项目(JA07039)

摘　　要：产业同构化可能造成区域间产业升级优化和彼此合作发展的瓶颈。选取闽台为研究对象,从三次产业、制造业和第三产业内部结构三个方面着手,应用相似系数指标,分别从静态与动态的角度分析闽台产业同构的现状与变化,并在此基础上,依据分形理论中的R/S分析方法,预测两地产业同构化的未来发展趋势。结果显示,闽台产业同构现象显著,如果在原有条件下继续发展,未来三次产业同构化程度将继续加大,制造业相似性总体上将呈现波动加强态势,第三产业结构同构化程度继续缓慢减小。然而闽台产业同构具有其内在必然性,相似的资源禀赋、日益接近的经济发展水平以及日益紧密的经济联系对产业同构的形成产生了正面影响;同时,产业同构也揭示了闽台产业分工已经由垂直分工向水平分工方向发展。因此宏观层面的产业同构未必给闽台未来经济合作产生明显的负面影响。Industrial isomorphism is one of the bottlenecks to the development of regional integration and industrial promotion in economic areas.Fujian and Taiwan,which have geographical proximities and historical/cultural similarities as well as their comparable stages of economic development in different periods,were chosen to be research objects in this paper.From fields of three kinds of industries,the industry and the tertiary industry,firstly,whose present situation and change of industrial structure were analyzed by using the similar coefficient.Secondly,the trend of industrial structure would be forecasted through such a method as R/S from fractal theory.The results show that the phenomenon of industrial isomorphism in these two regions is obvious.If the three industries continue to develop under the circumstances,the level of industrial isomorphism will continue to increase,and the manufacturing industry will be fluctuant in the rising trend,while the level of industrial isomorphism decreased slowly in tertiary industry,but it will be growing in the future as a whole.However,the appearance of industrial isomorphism between Fujian and Taiwan has its own inevitability.Because of the similarity of resource,economic development and economic connection,it does a great benefit to the occurrence of industrial isomorphism.At the same time,industrial isomorphism reveals a trend that industrial division between Fujian and Taiwan has passed from vertical to horizontal.Therefore,in macroscopic view,the industrial isomorphism may not bring negative influence to the future economic cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan.With the level of the similar industrial structure increasing process,the paper put forward some suggestions on the direction of economic development and the adjustment of industrial structure for Fujian Province.

关 键 词：产业同构化 相似系数 R/S分析方法 闽台 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]