路径既定条件下有害物品运输策略选择研究  

Selecting Tactics for Hazardous Materials Transport on A Given Route

作　　者：郭晓林[1,2] 李军[1] 潘立亚[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031 [2]成都信息工程学院管理学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2010年第5期9-15,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社科基金(07BJY038)

摘　　要：对有害物品运输问题的研究,大多集中在考虑路径风险情形下的路径选择问题方面,对路径既定条件下运输策略的选择问题尚未涉及.利用概率分析方法,比较了路径既定条件下一定量有害物品选择一次运输策略和选择多次运输策略在发生事故的可能性、路径风险两方面的差异.结果发现,一次运输情形下,发生事故的可能性较小,路径风险也较小,要使可能损失赔偿与运输成本之和最小,决策者应尽可能选择大载重量运输车辆进行有害物品运输.The most of research of hazardous materials transport aimed at the selection of route under thinking of route risk., and the research of the selection of transport tactics under the condition of given route hasn＇t been found. Using the method of probability analysis, this paper compares once-transportation＇ tactics and multi-transportation＇ tactics under the condition of given route about their accident probability and their route risks. It was found that the accident probability associated with the once-transportation＇ tactics is lower, and its transportation risk is also lower. To minimize the sum of possible damages and transportation costs, policymakers should select the vehicle with bigger carrying capacity for hazardous materials transport.

关 键 词：有害物品运输 运输策略 风险评价 最优策略 概率分析 

分 类 号：U492.336.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]