东亚季风气候系统变异和我国重大气候灾害发生机理研究进展  

Recent Progresses in Research on the Variabilities of the East Asian Monsoon System and Occurring Mechanism of Severe Climate Disasters in China

作　　者：黄荣辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2010年第2期202-206,共5页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2009CB421405的资助

摘　　要：文章回顾了近年来关于东亚季风气候系统变异和我国重大气候灾害发生机理的研究进展。通过许多观测事实分析揭示了东亚季风系统的时空变化和异常特征;并且从分析、动力理论和数值模拟研究了热带海洋、干旱/半干旱地区的陆面过程和青藏高原雪盖变化对东亚季风系统的影响及其过程,提出"东亚季风气候系统"新概念和此系统内动力学机理,并从东亚季风气候系统的年际和年代际变异提出长江流域严重洪涝发生的气候学概念模型和华北持续干旱灾害发生的气候背景;此外,本文还提出关于东亚季风气候系统亟需研究的若干科学问题。Recent progresses in our group＇s research on the variabilities of East Asian monsoon climate system（EAMCS） and the occurring mechanism of severe climate disasters in China are reviewed in this paper. Firstly,the temporal-spatial variations and anomalies of the East Asian monsoon system have been revealed from the analyses of observed data. Moreover,the impacts and their processes of the tropical oceans,the land process in arid and semi-arid region and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau on the East Asian monsoon system are studied from analyses,dynamical theories and numerical simulations,respectively,thus,a new concept of the EASMS and the internal dynamical mechanism of this system are proposed. And a climatological conceptive model of the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze River and the climate background of prolonged droughts in North China are put forward from the interannual and interdecadal variations of the EAMCS. Besides,some scientific issues related to the EAMCS,which should be studied urgently,are also suggested in this paper.

关 键 词：东亚季风 气候系统 变异 气候灾害 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P462.4