工程系统费用与进度的风险估计  

Cost-Schedule Risk Estimation for Engineering Systems

作　　者：徐哲[1] 冯允成[1] 韦有双[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学

出　　处：《科研管理》1998年第6期38-43,共6页Science Research Management

基　　金：863航天领域基金

摘　　要：从工程系统风险管理的角度，阐述了风险的概念及风险估计的内容，运用网络计划技术、系统仿真技术和统计分析方法，建立了工程系统费用与进度的仿真模型，对仿真结果进行统计分析，了解系统费用与进度的统计特性，进行费用、进度及费用一进度联合风险估计，为风险评价、管理决策和实施各项风险处理技术奠定基础。最后结合算例提出了费用风险。From the viewpoint of risk management for engineering systems, the concepts of risk and the contents of risk estimation are clarified in this paper By utilizing network program, system simulation and statistical analysis method, We set up cost-schedule simulation models, carry on statistical analyses for simulation results, find out the statistical feature of system’s cost and schedule, obtain the risk estimation for cost risk, schedule risk and combined cost-schedule risk, in order to lay a foundation for risk assess, management decision and to carry out several risk handle techniques Finally, a case study is presented in detail to illustrate the process of risk estimation for cost risk, schedule risk, combined cost-schedule risk

关 键 词：风险估计 工程系统 统计分析 进度 费用 

分 类 号：F281[经济管理—国民经济]