基于Mixed Logit模型的私家车通勤出行时间价值  

Value of driver commuting travel time based on Mixed Logit model

作　　者：赵胜川[1] 王喜文[1] 姚荣涵[1] 张羽祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学国际航运中心研究院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2010年第2期406-411,共6页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70571007)

摘　　要：假定时间参数为常数,费用参数服从对数正态分布,建立了出行路径选择的MixedLogit模型。利用大连市私家车出行者出行意向调查数据对该模型进行了150次仿真实验。结果表明:各个参数的t检验值均比较显著,模型的优度比也较高,参数的估计值具有很强的集中性。采用150次仿真结果的平均值作为私家车出行者通勤出行时间价值分布函数的参数估计值,得到该分布函数服从参数为2.73和1.09的对数正态分布。这一分布函数可以作为实施和评价道路拥挤收费项目的依据。A Mixed Logit model was built for the travel route choice on the supposition that the time parameter is constant and the cost parameter obeys a lognormal distribution.150 simulations were executed using the survey data about the travel intention of the private car driver in Dalian city,Liaoning province.The results show that the values of the t-test of parameters are significant,the goodness-of-fit indexes of the model are high and the estimation of parameters are strongly centralized.Taking the average values of the 150 simulations as parameters of the distribution function of the values of the commuting travel time of the private car driver,it was found that the distribution obeys the lognormal distribution with parameters of 2.73 and 1.09,which can be used as a reference for implementing and appraising a road congestion pricing project.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 出行时间价值 路径选择 MixedLogit模型 仿真 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]