甘南高原冰雹短时预报的客观相似预报方法  

Application of Objective Similarity Method to Short-Range Forecast of Hail in Gannan Plateau

作　　者：王建兵[1,2] 汪治桂 张胜智 杨文杰 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃甘南藏族自治州气象局,甘肃合作747000

出　　处：《干旱气象》2010年第1期87-90,共4页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：甘肃省气象局"西北地区防雹消雹技术在甘南州冰雹;雷暴短时临近预报预警中的应用推广研究(2007-07)"课题资助

摘　　要：利用相似预报的原理制作了甘南高原冰雹短时预报工具,该方法的实现是通过建立历史个例资料库,寻找相似个例并根据条件判断是否有冰雹,查看历史天气图并与当天实况进行对比,进行人工判断,增加新的冰雹个例4部分完成的。经检验,该方法在甘南州冰雹短时预报中使用效果较好,是一种有效的短时预报方法。By using the objective similarity method, A short - range forecast model of hail in Gannan Plateau was completed. The sys- tem compiled by four parts, including a history database of hail, similar case and judgment, viewing history weather map and comparing with intraday actually happening, adding new hail data. The result shows that the model has a good effect in short - range forecast of hail, and it is an effective method of short - range forecast.

关 键 词：冰雹 短时预报 相似 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]