基础设施投资与经济增长的相关性分析  

Correlation Analysis on Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth

作　　者：姜鑫[1] 李昌宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学马克思主义学院,哈尔滨150025

出　　处：《北方经贸》2010年第4期3-5,共3页Northern Economy and Trade

摘　　要：根据我国1996-2008年间的基础设施投资与GDP变动统计数据,计算出的相关系数和回归分析结果,表明GDP总量与基础设施投资总额之间的相关性较强。由此可以判断:我国今后2年4万亿元的投资对GDP增长产生巨大的拉动力。但1996-2008年间我国基础设施投资增长率与GDP增长率之间的相关系数和回归分析结果,则表明相关性较弱。其原因在于GDP增长率相对于投资增长率的滞后性、消费需求增速缓慢、出口需求锐减等方面。According to the changes in infrastructure investment and GDP statistics during the period of 1996- 2008 in China, the results of calculating the correlation coefficient and regression analysis showed that the correlation between the total GDP and total investment in infrastructure was strong. This can be judged that in the next two years, 4 trillion Yuan of investment in GDP growth will have a tremendous pulling power. But during the period of 1996-2008, the regression analysis and the correlation coefficient between the growth rate of China＇s infrastructure investment and GDP growth, have weak correlation. The reason lies in the lag of GDP growth rate after investment growth rate, the slow growth in consumer demand, the drop of export demand and so on .

关 键 词：基础设施投资 经济增长 相关性 回归分析 

分 类 号：F123.6[经济管理—世界经济]