基于价值工程理论的流域防灾体系加固决策研究  

Reinforcement Strategy of Basin Flood Control System Based on Value Engineering Theories

作　　者：梁国钱[1] 杜晨程[2] 陈斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省水利河口研究院,浙江杭州310020 [2]浙江水利水电专科学校,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《浙江水利科技》2010年第2期11-14,共4页Zhejiang Hydrotechnics

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金(Y507710)资助

摘　　要：以水库、堤防等诸防洪单元的失事概率、溃决损失分析为基础,计算其在洪水情况下的失事风险;而后考虑各防洪单元间的相互影响,建立全流域范围的洪灾风险分析模型。基于价值工程理论,综合考虑各防洪单元的加固成本、风险降低程度等因素,提出流域防洪工程的加固优先排序,为工程实施决策提供参考。Based on the failure probability and break loss analysis of reservoirs, dikes and other flood control units, the paper calculates their corresponding failure risk in flood, and then proposes a basinwide flood risk analysis model with consideration the mutual influence among different units. Based on the Value Engineering theories with comprehensive consideration 0~ reinforcement costs, degree of risk reduction and other factors, the papar proposes a priority list for basin reinforcement prejeets to offer reference for engineering decisionmaking.

关 键 词：流域 洪灾风险 价值工程 加固决策 

分 类 号：S442[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]