南水北调受水区城镇节水的定量研究  

Study on urban water saving amount in the benefited regions of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project

作　　者：孙秀敏[1] 秦长海[1] 甘泓[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《水利学报》2010年第2期205-210,219,共7页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重大项目（2006BAB04A09）;国家重点基础研究发展规划（973）资助项目（2006CB403408）;国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金项目（50721006）

摘　　要：从城镇用水部门的用水机理出发，辨析出影响南水北调受水区城镇用水的主要因素。采用计量经济学方法，以历史系列数据为基础分别建立了城镇居民生活、第二产业、第三产业用水定额的需求函数。利用南水北调受水区41个地市水价与价格弹性的关系进行推演，得出该区域城镇生活用水、第二产业用水和第三产业用水价格弹性的拐点分别出现在-0．465、-0．54和-0．46处，拐点处水价分别为5．0元、6．9元和9．1元。结合经济发展预测，计算得出不同影响因素组合情景下受水区2015年的总需水量。结果表明，在3种可能的水价方案下，与水价不变的情景相比，受水区可分别实现节水9．72亿m^3、13．44亿m^3和15．64亿m^3，节水效果明显。Based on different water consumption mechanism for different urban water-use sectors, this paper identified the main factors that affect urban water use in the benefited regions of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. On the basis of historical data series, an econometric method was adopted to establish quota demand functions for water used in urban residents living, the second and the third industry. According to the quantitative relationship between water price and price elasticity of 41 cities in the studied areas, the inflection points of price elasticity for water use in urban residents living, the second and the third industry are-0.465, -0.54 and-0.46 respectively, corresponding water prices are ￥5.0, ￥6.9 and ￥9.1. Combined with prediction of economic development, the total water demand of the benefited regions under different scenarios in 2015 was obtained by calculation. The results show that, water-saving amount in the benefited regions can reach 0.972 billion m^3, 1.344 billion m^3 and 1.564 billion m^3 respectively by applying three possible water price programs. The effect of water price on water saving is obvious.

关 键 词：城镇用水 节水 水价 需求函数 价格弹性 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]