大用户模糊优化购电组合策略的研究  

Studies of Electricity Procurement Strategy for Large Consumers Based on Fuzzy Optimization

作　　者：郑雅楠[1] 李庚银[1] 周明[1] 

机构地区：[1]电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2010年第10期98-104,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70773039);高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B08013);教育部科学技术研究重点项目(107030)~~

摘　　要：随着用户侧电力市场的开放,大用户允许在现货市场、长期合约市场和自备电厂中选择购电。面对这种市场角色的转变,综合考虑现货市场和长期合约市场电价的相关性,采用多变量灰色模型(multi-variablegre ymodel,MGM)(1,n),对现货市场和长期合约市场电价进行长期综合预测;在预测电价的基础上,运用模糊优化的方法,按照用户给定的期望目标及容差,建立了线性隶属函数的均值–风险价值(valueatrisk,VaR)最优购电组合模型。算例表明:电价的综合预测体现了现货市场和长期合约市场的相关性,预测精度更高;购电组合的模糊优化模型保证了用户兼顾电价和风险,更能满足用户的期望。With the development of retail power market, large consumers can choose purchasing electric energy among spot market, long-term contract trade power market and autonomous power plant. Based on the role change, considering the correlativeness of the power price in spot market and long-term contract trade power market comprehensively, the multi-variable grey model （MGM） （1, n） in power price forecast is adopted to make a long-term comprehensive forecast for the power price. Based on the forecasted power price, according to the given expected target and tolerance, the linear membership function and the mean-value at risk （VaR） optimum model of purchasing electricity are established by using the method of fuzzy optimization. Test results show that the comprehensive forecast for the power price embodies the correlativeness of the power price in spot market and long-term contract trade power market, the purchasing electricity decision of fuzzy optimization can assort with the price and risk, and more satisfy consumer＇s expectation.

关 键 词：电力市场 大用户直购电 电价预测 多变量灰色预测模型:购电组合策略 均值一VaR 模糊优化 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]