热带气旋路径客观业务预报综合方案的试验  

A test on the comprehensive method for the tropical cyclone track forecast

作　　者：薛宗元 吴天泉[1] 费亮[1] 徐静远 

机构地区：[1]上海台风研究所

出　　处：《气象》1990年第4期9-14,共6页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：本文以上海台风研究所热带气旋业务预报使用的统计动力、气候持续性以及500hPa引导气流等、三种不同性质的预报方案为基础,首先将上述三种方法得到的三组预报分量作为新的独立变量,建立热带气旋实际位移分量与它们之间的回归表达式;把1987和1988两年的台风业务预报资料作为独立样本,对这种组合形式的预报方案进行检验。结果表明,该综合方案提高了各子预报方案的预报精度。Here shows a new statistical system (CTFS) combining three differenttechniques,SD-85,CLIPER, and 500hPa steering which is being used atShanghai Typhoon Institute.Three sets of forecast components obtainedfrom the three methods mentioned-abbve are taken as new independentvariables.Then,stepwise regression analysis has been adopted to establishthe statistical relation between the actual displacement components and the above variables. Finally, the system was tested on operational data for 1987 and 1988.The results show that the new system is more advanced than its three sub-method in respect of forecast precision.

关 键 词：热带气旋 路径 预报 试验 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]