宁南山区荞麦钩翅蛾发生程度预报研究  

Forecasting the occurrence of Spica parallelangula in mountainous regions of Southern Ningxia

作　　者：谢成君 刘普明 杨东宏 

机构地区：[1]宁夏西吉县农技中心,宁夏756200

出　　处：《植物保护》2010年第2期127-129,135,共4页Plant Protection

摘　　要：本文利用宁南山区22年荞麦钩翅蛾发生程度和西吉县气象资料,采用加权列联表分析法,对荞麦钩翅蛾发生程度进行预测,经1年预报和22年回测,其3因子中短期预报历史拟合率82.6%,精确率95.7%;2因子长期预报历史符合率73.9%,精确率达93.9%。The occurrence of Spica parallelangula Alpheraky was forecasted based on meteorological data of Xiji county and the occurrence data in 22 years in the mountainous regions of Southern Ningxia. The results showed that the medium-short term forecast historic matching ratio and accuracy of 3 factors were 82.6% and 95.7%, respectively, and the long-term forecast historic matching ratio and accuracy of 2 factors were 73.9% and 93.9%, respectively.

关 键 词：荞麦钩翅蛾 加权列联表分析 发生程度预测 宁南山区 

分 类 号：S435.129[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]