提高退休年龄与降低替代率:城镇职工基本养老金的财政支出研究  

Enhancing the retirement age and reducing the substitution rate: the research of the City staff basic pension expenditure

作　　者：王增文[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学公共管理学院,南京210046

出　　处：《西北人口》2010年第2期18-21,26,共5页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金："建立覆盖城乡居民社会保障体系的制度框架及实施难点研究"--国家哲社基金重大招标项目(07&ZD047)

摘　　要：目前,中国法定退休年龄与最优退休年龄存在不同步的现象,所建最优退休年龄经济模型的结果表明人口死亡概率与最优退休年龄的动态经济规律。按照这个规律,中国目前应提高退休年龄。但通过对城镇职工的年龄预测及对其赡养率和缴费率的敏感性分析,笔者认为解决目前财政压力的关键是适当降低养老金替代率,而提高退休年龄应逐步推行。Now, China＇s statutory retirement age and optimal short-term memory are not synchronized,which Resulted in the statutory retirement age is well below the optimal retirement age. The model reveals the optimal dynamic economic law of the probability of death and the retirement age. By the age of urban workers and their maintenance prediction rate and payment rate sensitivity analysis, we think the key and appropriate Solution to the current financial stress is to reduce the pension re placement rate and gradually raising the retirement age.

关 键 词：最优退休年龄 法定退休年龄 死亡概率 缴费率 

分 类 号：F241.34[经济管理—劳动经济]