冀鲁豫灌溉条件下冬小麦干旱风险区划方法研究  

Study on the Division Method of Wheat Drought Risk Zones in Hebei-Shandong-Henan under Irrigation Conditions

作　　者：张文宗[1,2] 张超[3] 赵春雷[1,2] 刘晶淼[4] 

机构地区：[1]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,河北石家庄050021 [2]河北省气象科学研究所,河北石家庄050021 [3]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,河北石家庄050016 [4]中国气象科学研究院,北京100089

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第8期4158-4161,4164,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家财政部气象行业专项(GYHY200706030);中国气象局2009年预算内项目(CMATG2009M32)

摘　　要：分别以冬小麦年生育期降水量平均值加减若干倍样本方差的方法界定不同等级的干旱年份,在以气象产量减产率大于等于3%为标准界定冬小麦受灾年份的基础上,计算了冀鲁豫地区冬小麦旱年的平均减产率,分析了冀鲁豫冬小麦不同旱灾强度的频率分布规律。根据冬小麦干旱灾害风险指数的概念和计算方法,分析了冬小麦干旱灾害风险指数的区域分布规律,并提出了有灌溉条件下的冀鲁豫地区冬小麦干旱风险区划技术方法,以旱年平均减产率、干旱灾害风险指数和冬小麦生育期降水量等因子为指标,采用GIS统计分析功能和叠加分析功能,对冀鲁豫冬麦区干旱灾害造成的冬小麦减产风险进行了区划和评估,实现了不同气候年景下和不同风险区冬小麦减产情况的风险评估,给出了冬小麦旱灾的防灾减灾措施。The average rainfall in whole growth period of wheat to plus or minus several times of sample variance was used to define different grades of drought.The reduction rate of production in meteorological is equal to or greater than the rate of 3% was taken as standards to define wheat drought disaster years.The average reduction ratio of production in the wheat drought years in Hebei-Shandong-Henan was calculated.The frequency distribution rule of wheat in different drought disaster strength of winter wheat in Hebei-Shandong-Henan was analyzed.According to the conception and calculation method of drought disaster risk index of winter wheat,the regional distribution law of drought disaster risk index of winter wheat was analyzed.The division technical methods of winter wheat drought disaster risk zones in Hebei-Shandong-Henan under the irrigated conditions were put forward.Taking the average reduction rate of production in drought years,drought disaster risk index and precipitation of winter wheat in growth periods as indices,using the statistical analysis and overlay function of GIS,the production reduction risk of winter wheat caused by drought disaster in winter wheat zones of Hebei-Shandong-Henan was divided and evaluated.The risk evaluation of production reduction of winter wheat in different risk zones under different climate conditions was realized.The disaster prevention and mitigation measures of winter wheat drought were given.

关 键 词：冀鲁豫地区 冬小麦干旱 风险评估和区划 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学]