小型水库群坝溃坝风险分析方法研究  

Risk analysis method for group-dam dam-break of small reservoirs

作　　者：李超[1] 李天科[1] 郭清华[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《水利经济》2010年第2期55-58,共4页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

摘　　要：通过溃坝概率和溃坝后果分析,引入溃坝后果综合评价函数,计算水库溃坝风险指数,作为衡量水库溃坝风险大小的指标,通过对溃坝概率和风险指数的分析,提出新的降低风险的策略,为目前正在开展的小型病险水库除险加固决策提供参考依据,为今后的运行管理提供理论指导。The regional small reservoirs were chosen to study the risk analysis method for group-dam dam-break. Through the analysis of the dam-break probability and consequences, a comprehensive evaluation function of consequences was introduced into the dam-break function. The dam-break risk index was calculated as a measure to indicate the magnitude of dam break risks. Based on the analysis of the dam-break probability and the risk index, new strategies and standards to mitigate risks were proposed so as to provide the basis and reference for the decision-making of ongoing disaster mitigation and rehabilitation of small dangerous reservoirs and the theoretical guidance for the future operation and management of small reservoirs.

关 键 词：小型水库 风险分析 风险指数 水库加固 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]