利用灰关联定权组合模型预测城镇给水管道腐蚀速率  

Corrosion Prediction for Pipelion in Water Supply of Town by Grey Relational Weight-Making Combination Forecasting Model

作　　者：蒋白懿[1] 叶友林[1] 李亚峰[1] 陶翠翠[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳建筑大学市政环境工程学院,辽宁沈阳110168

出　　处：《沈阳建筑大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第2期335-338,共4页Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAJ06B07)

摘　　要：目的研究城镇给水管道腐蚀预测,减小爆管事故的发生率,提高供水系统安全性.方法应用灰色理论分别考察在不同单因素影响下给水管道腐蚀速率的变化状况,建立灰关联定权组合模型,预测给水管道在溶解氧、溶解性CO2、pH值、水流速度、水压共同作用下的腐蚀速率.结果运用灰关联定权组合模型预测得到的给水管道腐蚀速率的相对误差最高为2.33%,最低为0.21%,与实际测量腐蚀速率能够较好吻合.结论基于灰色理论求解的灰关联定权组合预测模型可较准确地预测多种影响因素下给水管道腐蚀速率.It is important to set up the predictive models for pipeline corrosion rate in water distribution system for reducing the rate of pipe break and enhancing the security of water distribution systems. Based on the theories of gray model, the influence of a different single factor on the changes of water supply pipeline corrosion rate has been measured respectively, by establishing grey relational weights-making combination model with the common influence of various factors, such as dissolved oxygen, dissolved carbon dioxide, PH, flow rate and hydraulic pressure, the water pipeline corrosion rate can be predicted. The relative error by using grey relational weights-making combination model is lower than 2.33% and 0. 21% is the lowest, which has a good agreement with that measured corrosion rate by standard method. Grey relational weightsmaking combination model based on grey theory can accurately forecast the influence factors of pipeline corrosion rate.

关 键 词：灰关联定权组合模型 给水管道 预测 腐蚀速率 

分 类 号：TG174.39[金属学及工艺—金属表面处理]