中国环境污染事故发生与经济发展的动态关系  

Evolvement of the relationship between environmental pollution accident and economic growth in China

作　　者：杨洁[1,2] 毕军[1] 张海燕[1] 李凤英[1] 周鲸波[2] 刘蓓蓓[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210093 [2]苏州科技学院,江苏苏州215011

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2010年第4期571-576,共6页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40771080);国家"863"项目(2007AA06A404);江苏省环境科学与工程重点实验室开放课题(ZD061201);苏州科技学院重点学科项目(A0030705)

摘　　要：基于1992～2006年中国经济发展和环境污染事故时序数据,建立了中国经济发展和环境污染事故发生的计量模型,以此来分析中国环境安全状态的发展阶段与趋势.结果表明,中国环境污染事故频数与经济增长之间呈现倒"N"型波浪式的EKC特征.环境污染事故频数、水污染事故频数、大气污染事故频数随着人均GDP的快速提高,先下降、后上升、再下降,但还会出现反复.环境污染事故的发生不同于环境污染物的排放,不是经济发展过程中的必然产物,但是却具有非常大的不确定性和危害性,必须利用先进的政策、制度和技术,才可以有效减少污染事故的发生.The econometric model between economic growth and environmental pollution accident in China was established to identify the phase of environmental safety and its trend,based on the time series data from 1992 to 2006. The results showed that the relationship between environmental pollution accident and economic growth shaped as an inverted-N curve of EKC in China. Frequencies of environmental pollution accidents,water pollution accidents and air pollution accidents would first decline,and increase,and then decline,with the rapid increase of GDP per capita. The trend could appear repeatedly. Different from that of emissions discharge,the occurrence of pollution accidents is not inevitable during the process of economic development,but of high uncertainty and large damage. Thus,effective policies and advanced technologies are suggested to reduce the environmental pollution accidents.

关 键 词：环境污染事故 经济增长 环境库兹涅茨特征 环境安全 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]