重大事件对上海市入境旅游需求的影响——基于ADL模型的分析  

The Impact of Mega-events on Shanghai's Demand for Inbound Travel——Based on the Analysis of ADL Model

作　　者：王铮[1,2] 袁宇杰[1] 熊文[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2010年第4期44-49,共6页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70933002)资助~~

摘　　要：本文根据1978～2008年上海市入境旅游接待人次数的统计数据,构建了上海市入境旅游需求的自回归分布滞后模型。通过引入虚拟变量,本文分析了历次重大事件对上海市入境旅游需求的影响。结果发现,2003年SARS主要影响欧洲国家来沪国际旅游需求,对上海市入境旅游的总体需求没有造成显著的负面影响;1979年石油价格危机、1997年亚洲金融风暴与2008年全球金融危机造成的负面影响,存在影响人次数逐次增加,但影响比例逐次下降的趋势。重大事件对各客源国来沪国际旅游需求的影响存在差异,对全国与上海市的影响也不同。本文提出旅游管理部门与业界在决策过程中要重视这些差异与不同。In accordance with the statistics of the number of inbound tourists from 1978 ～ 2008,the paper constructs inbound tourism demand model based on ADL model.We analyze the impact of some mega-events by introducing dummy variables.The results indicate that SARS in 2003 mainly affected demand for inbound travel from Europan countries to Shanghai,which did not bring about significant negative impact on the overall demand for inbound travel.However,oil price crisis in 1979,Asian financial crisis in 1997 and global financial crisis in 2008 did bring about negative impact,resulting in the successive increase of the number of influencing tourists,but with the successive declining trend of influencing proportion.We also find out that there are differences in terms of the impact of megaevents on the demand of international tourists to Shanghai from tourism-generating countries,with different impacts in Shanghai and other parts of the country.We hope tourism administrative departments and industrial circle will attach great importance to these differences in the process of their decision-making.

关 键 词：重大事件 入境旅游需求 自回归分布滞后模型 虚拟变量 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]