钻井工程风险评价的一种简单实用方法  

A SIMPLE AND PRACTICAL METHOD FOR DRILLING ENGINEERING RISK ASSESSMENT

作　　者：张琥[1] 谢祥俊[1] 郝晓丽[2] 朱海双[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学,四川成都610500 [2]西部钻探工程有限公司克拉玛依钻井公司,新疆克拉玛依834009

出　　处：《石油工业计算机应用》2010年第1期13-14,共2页Computer Applications Of Petroleum

摘　　要：钻井工程存在大量复杂和不确定因素,具有很大风险性。如何进行准确的钻前风险评价和有效的钻井风险控制,不仅是控制钻井工程风险的前提,更是钻井工程投资决策的重要依据。文中以层次分析法为基础,通过调查研究分析,发现很多情况下的钻井技术风险主要由地层风险、生产风险、后勤保障风险以及其它风险所组成。采用1-9标度法建立专家评判矩阵,对钻井风险因素进行定量评价,建立了钻井工程风险综合评价模型。通过对实例的分析,说明该方法的简单实用性。Drilling engineering, in which there are lots of complex and uncertain factors, has great risk.Accurate risk assessment before drilling and effective risk control are not only the precondition, but also the important basis of investment decision for drilling engineering .Based on analytical hierarchy process, it is found from investigation that drilling risk is mainly composed of formation risk, production risk, supporting services risk and other risks.1-9 scaling is used to establish the expert evaluation matrix with which a comprehensive evaluation model is set up for quantitative assessment of drilling risk factors in drilling engineering.Case analysis indicates that the method is simple and practical.

关 键 词：钻井工程风险评价 层次分析法 专家评判矩阵 

分 类 号：TE22[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]