基于SD的城镇就业人数影响因子模型及其仿真  

Simulative Study of Urban Employment Population For Impact Factor Model Based On Systems Dynamics

作　　者：陈涛[1,2] 何宜庆[2] 谢江林[2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学数学系,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学系统工程研究所,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《南昌大学学报（理科版）》2010年第1期33-38,共6页Journal of Nanchang University(Natural Science)

基　　金：江西省教育厅科学技术项目(GJJ09032);江西省自然科学基金项目(0611082)

摘　　要：运用协整与Granger因果分析理论确定了国内生产总值、固定资产投资、国家财政收入、全社会消费品总额和第三产业产值为城镇就业人数的影响因子,运用系统动力学的理论与方法构建了城镇就业人数的系统动力学模型,在不同的投资和消费力度下对城镇就业人数进行了模拟。结果表明,消费相对投资而言更能提高就业水平,进而提出相应的对策及建议。The gross domestic product, the fixed asset investment, the state revenue, the whole amount of social consumer goods and the output value of tertiary industry have been identified for urban employment impact factors through the use of cointegration and Granger causality analysis theory. A model of urban employment population has been established based on the theory and method of system dynamics. The number of urban employment has been simulated in different intensity of investment and consumption with the model, The results show that consumption more than investment in improving the level of employment. This paper also puts forward some suggestions in order to raising the employment rate.

关 键 词：系统动力学 消费 投资 GRANGER检验 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]