联合气象地温资料分析北京地区的气候变化  

The Climate Analysis Based on Ground Temperature Data in Beijing

作　　者：姜晓[1] 魏东平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院研究生院计算地球动力学实验室,北京100049

出　　处：《科技导报》2010年第7期22-27,共6页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40874047)

摘　　要：利用1954—2006年北京地区0.8、1.6、3.2m深度的逐月平均地温资料,得到其年平均地温并与相应的气温数据进行对比,分析其变化规律。通过气候倾向率对比分析,初步给出了该地区50年来平均地温和气温的变化趋势,发现该地区的浅层地温和气温均有所增加,近年来增加幅度增大。小波分析发现,该地区浅层地温和气温同时存在约10年和15年多重周期变化特征,且均在20世纪70年代初和80年代末发生温度突变。利用世界气象组织判断气候异常的标准得到浅层地温和气温的温度异常年份。这些结果有助于从新的角度(气温联合浅层地温)分析北京地区的气候变化。The global climate is getting warmer during the 20th century, which has caused a great concern. This study analyzes the relationship and the changing rhythm of ground temperatures at depths of 0.8, 1.6 and 3.2m and the corresponding air temperature during 1954-2006 in Beijing. From the climate change rates, it is shown that the ground temperature and the air temperature are increased in the 51 years, with the increasing rates of 0.05, 0.18, 0.08℃/10a in the 0.8, 1.6, 3.2m for the ground temperature and 0.25℃/10a for the air temperature, and the increasing range is increased in recent years. The wavelet analysis shows a multiple periodic changing trend of either 10 or 15 years, and the temperature saw mutations in the beginning of the 1970＇s and the end of the 1980＇s. Before the 1970＇s, it is in the climatic warm period; during 1972 and 1959, it is in the climate cold period; in the years from 1990 to 2006, it is again in the climate warm period. And based on the results, it is expected that the next 15 or 16 years will see colder climate. But the general trend in the large scale is on the warmer side. Based on the standard established by World Meteorological Organization, the climate abnormal year is determined. The climate abnormal warm year with respect to the ground temperature is around 1963 and 2000, and the climate abnormal cold year is around 1957 and 1970. The abnormal cold year with respect to the air temperature has not been found, but the abnormal warm year is the year of 2006. The results provide a new angle to study the climate change in Beijing.

关 键 词：北京地区 浅层地温 气温 气候倾向率 小波分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]