基于贝叶斯网络的路网失效程度评估方法研究  

Traffic Network Failure Degree Approach Method Research Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：黄晶[1] 徐丽群[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200030

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2010年第9期2127-2133,2150,共8页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家863项目(2006AA11Z209)资助

摘　　要：创造性地将贝叶斯网络应用于路网失效的评估中。选择连通可靠性作为评价标准,运用实例分析的方法,对基于贝叶斯网络的路网失效程度评估方法进行了研究。通过对路网的失效成因进行分析建立路网失效对应的事件树与故障树,并引入故障树向贝叶斯网络转化的算法,提出了利用贝叶斯网络对城市路网的失效程度进行评估的方法。最后举出一个简单的路网实例,按上述方法对其建立了其路网失效的贝叶斯网络,并利用MSNBX软件对该路网遭遇不同类型攻击时的失效情况进行了模拟计算,得到了实例路网的失效程度。实验结果证明了所探讨的方法的有效性,并为贝叶斯网络在大规模路网研究中的应用提出了一些思考和建议。The Bayesian network in the traffic network failure degree approach is aplled in a creative way. By using the method of empirical study,the traffic network failure degree approach is researched based on Bayesian network with the evaluation index of connectivity reliability.The method of the traffic network failure degree quantification is concluded based on Bayesian network by analysising the cause of traffic network failure,establishing the event tree and fault tree and then buliding the Bayesian network with the algorithm of transforming event tree and fault tree to Bayesian network.Finally,a simple example of the road network is cited,according to the above-mentioned method,establish the Bayesian network of road network failure and use the software MSNBX to simulate the different types of attacks,then got the result to prove the validity of the method that had been mentioned and given some advise to the application of bayesian network in research on large scale traffic network.

关 键 词：路网失效 故障树 贝叶斯网络 实例分析 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]