国家粮食安全战略下湖北省耕地需求量预测  

A Prediction of Gross Arable Land Demand of Hubei Province Based on Food-safety

作　　者：刘作良[1] 邓颖林[2] 

机构地区：[1]南宁国土资源局,广西南宁530022 [2]广西国土资源规划院,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2010年第2期94-97,共4页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

摘　　要：常见的耕地需求量预测方法——灰色预测法和时间序列分析法等纯数学方法缺乏对自然和社会因素的内在分析,尤其是缺乏与粮食安全之间的内在联系。因此从国家粮食安全战略出发对耕地需求量预测方法进行探讨,并以湖北省为例进行实征研究,证明该方法合理可行。Methods such as regressive analysis and gray system are used to predict the demand quantity of arable land. However, those methods are based on historic data, lacking an internal analysis of natural and social factors, especially the internal connection with food-safety. Therefore it is necessary to probe into the prediction ways from the perspective of national food safety strategy, which proved rational and feasible in the demonstrative study in Hubei Province.

关 键 词：粮食安全 耕地 需求量预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]