作物生长模型的适用性评价及冬小麦产量预测  

Applicability evaluation of CERES-Wheat model and yield prediction of winter wheat

作　　者：王伟[1,2] 黄义德[1] 黄文江[2] 李存军[2] 王娴[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学农学院,合肥230061 [2]国家农业信息化工程技术研究中心,北京100097

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2010年第3期233-237,共5页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家863项目(2007AA10Z201);国家自然科学基金项目(40701120);农业部行业科技项目(200803037)

摘　　要：为了研究CERES-Wheat模型在北京地区的适用性及应用模型对冬小麦产量进行预测,在对模型进行参数校正的基础上,通过连续3a的试验数据对模型适用性进行评估,进一步采用试验点气象观测站2007-2008年气象数据作为驱动模型展开模拟,预测了2007-2008年北京冬小麦产量为6000kg/hm2,并对比了2004-2008年的模型模拟值(包括生殖生长期时间、叶面积指数和产量)与实际观测值。结果表明:模型模拟开花期时间一般较实际观测时间推迟6d以内,成熟期时间一般较实际观测时间推迟5d以内,叶面积指数和产量较真实值偏高,综合4a产量预测数据发现模型模拟产量准确度在90%以上,说明CERES-Wheat模型在北京适用性良好,可以作为一个有效的冬小麦产量预测工具在农业中应用。The aim of this study was to research the applicability of the CERES-Wheat Model and to use the model to predict the winter wheat yield. Based on the parameters calibrated correctly,constant 3a experimental data has been used for evaluation. After input 2007–2008 weather data of DAVIS station,the model predicted that the yield of winter wheat in 2008 was 6 000 kg/hm^2. Then CERES-Wheat Model simulated and observed results（including the phonological dates,LAI and the yield） was compared. The final results showed that the deviation of simulated and observed anthesis dates was less than 6 days,the deviation of simulated and observed maturity dates was less than 5 days,simulated LAI and yield were higher than field-observed results,while the deviation of yield prediction was less than 10%. So the applicability of CERES-Wheat Model in Beijing is good and the model can be a useful research tool for yield forecast in agriculture.

关 键 词：农作物 模型 误差分析 冬小麦 适用性 产量预测 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学]