人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点  

Demographic Transition,Demographic Dividend,and Lewis Turning Point in China

作　　者：蔡昉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所

出　　处：《经济研究》2010年第4期4-13,共10页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：对于人口转变的阶段性变化从而人口发展动态缺乏一致性认识,以及对于人口红利在二元经济发展中的作用的不同看法,常常导致学者们在经济发展阶段判断上的分歧。本文从理论上尝试揭示人口转变与二元经济发展的一致关系,即两个过程具有共同的起点、相关和相似的阶段特征、甚至重合的变化过程;进而利用人口预测结果等经验材料,论证和检验人口红利逐渐消失和刘易斯转折点到来的判断。本文还指出,保持稳定的经济增长,尽早进入高收入国家的行列,是缩小"未富先老"缺口的关键和唯一途径。为此,本文就挖掘第一次人口红利的潜力、创造第二次人口红利的条件,以及依靠转变发展方式获得新的经济增长源泉提出政策建议。The disagreements on changed stages of demographic transition and the role of demographic dividend in dual economy development often lead to divarication among scholars about China＇s development stages. This paper tries to reveal the nexus between demographic transition and dual economy development： the common starting points, close related processes, and identical characteristics of stages. Based on the empirical evidence of population dynamics, the paper proves the judgment of diminishing demographic dividend and incoming Lewis turning point in China. It also argues that the further economic growth and thus faster entrance of high-income cavalcade is the key and only avenue to close the ＂aging before affluence＂ gap. Accordingly, the paper concludes with proposing measures of exploiting potentials of first demographic dividend, creating conditions for second demographic dividend, and tapping new sources of economic growth.

关 键 词：人口转变 人口红利 刘易斯转折点 未富先老 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]