中国各地区隐性经济的规模、原因和影响  

The Size,Causes and Effects of the Hidden Economy:An Empirical Investigation from Provinces of China

作　　者：杨灿明[1] 孙群力[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学

出　　处：《经济研究》2010年第4期93-106,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"规范收入分配秩序研究"(批准文号:07JZD0011)的资助

摘　　要：本文采用中国省级面板数据,应用MIMIC模型度量了1998—2007年我国30个省市区的隐性经济规模。在MIMIC模型中,以税收负担、居民收入、失业率、政府管制和自我就业率作为隐性经济的原因变量,以实际GDP增长率、劳动力参与率作为隐性经济的指标变量,研究发现,税收负担、失业率与隐性经济显著正相关,而居民收入、政府管制、自我就业率则与隐性经济显著负相关,它们是影响隐性经济的主要因素。本文还发现,隐性经济对官方经济具有一定的积极作用,而隐性经济与劳动力参与率显著负相关,即随着隐性经济的发展,使部分劳动者从官方经济部门进入到隐性经济部门。度量结果表明,我国各省市区平均隐性经济规模在1998—2007年期间介于10.5%—14.6%之间,且呈逐年缓慢上升的趋势。Using the province level panel data from China, this paper investigates the size of the hidden economy in China provinces over the period from 1998 to 2007. A multiple indicators and multiple causes model based on the latent variable structural theory has been applied. The model includes the tax burden, a proxy of regulation burden, the unemployment quota and self-employment as causes of the shadow economy and the GDP growth rate, the labour force participation ratio as indicators of the hidden economy, The coefficients for the tax burden, unemployment rate and self-employment are found to be positive and significant, The coefficients for the government regulation is found to be negative and significant. The hidden economy on the official economy have some positive effect, and the relationship between hidden economy and labor force participation rate is significantly negative. The empirical results show that the average size of hidden economy measures between 10.5%-14.6% of GDP in the period 1998-2007.

关 键 词：隐性经济 税收负担 居民收入 多指标多原因模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224