水平井产能预测模型在冀东油田的应用与评价  

Application and Evaluation of Horizontal Well Productivity Model in Jidong Oilfield

作　　者：隋先富[1] 吴晓东[1] 张明江 郑建军 韩国庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]石油工程教育部重点实验室(中国石油大学),北京昌平102249 [2]中国石油天然气勘探开发公司,北京100343 [3]中海石油天津分公司渤海油田勘探开发研究院,天津塘沽300452

出　　处：《石油钻探技术》2010年第2期72-75,共4页Petroleum Drilling Techniques

基　　金：国家重大专项"大型油气田及煤层气开发"子课题"复杂结构井优化设计与控制关键技术"(编号:2008ZX05009-05)部分研究成果

摘　　要：水平井产能预测模型在实际应用中经常会出现较大的误差,这给现场应用带来了困难。通过对不同产能预测模型的分析,总结了这些产能模型的共性和各自的特点,指出了产能预测结果不准确的原因。分析结果表明,对于冀东油田不同油藏区块有不同的预测模型与之相适应,高尚堡区块Borisov模型吻合程度最好,而柳南区块Joshi模型吻合情况最好,Joshi模型误差分布最有规律。结合预测过程中出现的误差规律,利用最小二乘法原理,引入修正系数对产能预测模型进行修正,给出了油田现场进行水平井产能预测的原则和方法,提高了预测精度。冀东油田的预测结果表明,修正的产能预测模型能够准确进行水平井产能预测。The field application of horizontal well productivity prediction model shows that the prediction results are poor which bring difficulty for field application.This paper analyzed many prediction models,summarized their similarities and characteristics,and pointed out the reasons for inaccuracy.Analysis results indicate that different block in Jidong Oilfield has its own prediction model.The Borisov model is suitable for Gaoshangpu block while the Joshi model is best for Liunan block.The error distribution pattern from Joshi model is best.Combined with the error occurred in prediction,a correction factor is introduced to correct the initial model based on principle of least square method.The principles and methods for field prediction were provided.Prediction results in the Jidong Oilfield show that the modified productivity model improves accuracy significantly.

关 键 词：水平井 生产能力预测 数学模型 修正 最小二乘法 冀东油田 

分 类 号：TE328[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]