中伊(朗)关系的现状与未来——从政治、经贸、文化多角度的量化研究  

Current Situation and Future of the Relationship between China and Iran——Quantitative Research from the Angle of Politics,Economy,Trade and Culture

作　　者：赵宏伟[1] 杨兴礼[1] 陈俊华[1] 冀开运[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆北碚400715 [2]西南大学历史文化学院,重庆北碚400715

出　　处：《重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第2期28-33,共6页Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(04BGJ003)"新时期中国伊朗关系研究"

摘　　要：采用定性与定量相结合的方法——专家调查法,通过邀请相关领域的部分专家和青年学者,对影响中国伊朗关系的主要因素进行权重和状态赋分,将获取的数据汇总、分析和修正,得到中伊关系的现状和未来的评价结果是:中伊关系的现状处于中等水平,但是未来两国关系得到加强的可能性极大,特别是在能源、经济贸易合作、国际重大问题等领域的合作会进一步发展,从而具备建立战略合作伙伴关系或者自由贸易区的基础;但是美国因素将是影响中伊关系的重大、长期因素。This paper uses quantitative and qualitative method, experts discussions, invitation of a part of experts and young scholars to discuss the weight and status of the factors influencing the relationship between China and Iran, analyzes and revises the data. The results indicate that current situation of the relationship between China and Iran reaches middle level, that it has great possibility that China and Iran will further enhance their relationship in the fields of energy, economy, trade and international important issues so that strategic partner relation or free trade zone will be established but the factor of the United States is the important and long-term factor to affect the relationship between China and Iran.

关 键 词：中伊关系 影响因素 专家调查法 评价 预测 

分 类 号：D822.337.3[政治法律—政治学]