军事欺骗战法分析的数学方法-应用  

Mathematics Method for Analysis of Military Deception Tactics-Application

作　　者：朱泽生[1] 孙玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军指挥学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2010年第2期15-20,共6页Command Control & Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30030090;39870534)

摘　　要：针对军事欺骗战法定量分析困难的问题,采用基于贝叶斯统计推断和博弈均衡分析的数学方法,在理论上为解决此难题提供了一种可行的方法。该方法首先定义基本概率矩阵,然后根据贝叶斯原理为交战双方构造用于统计推断的主观概率矩阵,并在由两个主观概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链与实施军事欺骗机会之间建立对应关系,再将此关系推广到基本概率矩阵,即是否存在实施军事欺骗的机会将由基本概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链决定。对理论成果的初步应用表明:通过分析由战场情报信息构成的基本概率矩阵的偏序链,可以科学地运用军事欺骗和反军事欺骗战法。Quantity analysis of military deception tactics is difficult and there are no methods to implement this analysis.This paper describes a possible mathematics method based on Bayesian statistical inference and game equilibrium analysis for completing this analysis in theory.First of all,the definition of basic probability matrix is involved for building subjective probability matrixes for statistical inference of two sides of game by Bayesian principle.Next,the correspondence relationship between the military deception chance and the partial order link constructed by elements of two subjective probability matrixes is built for analyzing the partial order link constructed by elements of basic probability matrix.The chance of military deception is finally determined by the partial order link of basic probability matrix.The initial results of research on this theory application show that the military deception or anti-deception tactics can be applied scientifically with the help of analysis for partial order links from basic probability matrix built by battle intelligence information.

关 键 词：军事欺骗 贝叶斯理论 偏序分析 博弈均衡分析 战法分析 

分 类 号：E83[军事—战术学]