煤制天然气产业风险评估及对策研究  

Risk Assessment and Countermeasures on Synthetic Natural Gas Industry

作　　者：熊志建[1] 邓蜀平[1] 蒋云峰[1] 刘永[1] 宋惠森[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院山西煤炭化学研究所,山西太原030001

出　　处：《河南化工》2010年第7期21-24,31,共5页Henan Chemical Industry

摘　　要：煤制天然气(SNG)产业对缓解我国天然气供需缺口、实现天然气稳定安全供应有积极作用。在肯定了我国适度发展SNG产业的必要性之后,利用SWOT分析工具对我国的SNG产业进行了初步的风险识别,在此基础上,深入分析了这一产业面临的四大风险:政策风险、经济性风险、市场风险以及资源、环境与生态风险。随后,运用了美国空军电子系统中心的专业分析工具,采用德尔菲法,通过设计专门调查表,聘请12位专家对SNG产业进行了风险评级,经汇总处理分析后,全面评估了这四类风险的风险等级。除市场风险为中度外,其余三类风险均为高风险。最后,提出了应对这些风险的两点对策:一是加强国家宏观政策引导力度,尽快编制全国性的SNG产业发展规划;二是贯彻循环经济发展理念,延长产业链条,凸现SNG产业核心竞争力。Synthetic natural gas （SNG） industry has a positive effect to alleviate the gap between supply and demand of natural gas and achieve a stable and secure supply of natural gas. While affirming the re- quirement of China to appropriate develop SNG industry, this manuscript analyzes strengths and weaknes- ses, opportunities and threats of the SNG industry in China by SWOT method. On this basis, further risk a- nalysis reveal four major risks ： policy risk, economic risk, market risk, as well as resources, environment and ecological risk. Subsequently ,based on the U.S. Air Force Electronic Systems Center＇s professional risk analysis tools, using the Delphi method, through the design of a special investigation form which invi- ted 12 experts from SNG industry, this study conducted a risk rating assessment for these four risks. The result shows that except market risk, the other three types of risk are all high risks. Finally, some strategic solutions are proposed to address these risks, such as to compile a national SNG industry development plans, to implement the concept of circular economy in SNG industry.

关 键 词：煤制天然气 风险 SWOT分析 对策 

分 类 号：TQ54[化学工程—煤化学工程]