上海市经济发展与环境质量演进关系实证研究  

Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Shanghai

作　　者：张婧[1] 马仁锋[1] 王能洲[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学城市与区域经济系,硕士研究生上海200062

出　　处：《创新》2010年第1期61-64,共4页Innovation

摘　　要：论文选取90年代以来上海市经济增长和环境污染的主要指标,通过构建计量经济多元回归模型,重点分析了工业人均GDP与工业"三废"、烟尘、COD排放量变化间的关系以及人均GDP与生活废气、烟尘、废水排放量变化间的关系。结果表明:经济增长与工业生产和生活产生的污染物排放量之间均呈三次曲线的关系,且不符合典型的EKC;全市工业废气排放量曲线近似于"倒U"型EKC左半部分,没有转折迹象,而工业烟尘排放量曲线近似于"倒U"型EKC的右半部分,不断减小,相对于工业,生活废气和烟尘排放量曲线呈现"正U+倒U"变化趋势,波动明显;工业废水和COD排放量曲线近似于"倒U"型EKC右半部分,但COD排放量有回升迹象,与此相对,生活废水排放量曲线则近似于"倒U"型EKC左半部分,增速明显;工业固体废弃物排放量曲线近似于"倒U"型EKC左半部分,呈现出平稳上升的趋势。It uses indicators of economic growth and environmental change from 1992 to 2007 of shanghai. The paper analyses relationship between GDP per capita of industry and total volume of industrial waste gas emission,wastewater discharged,solid wastes discharged,dust,COD,relationship between GDP per capita and total volume of domestic waste gas emission,dust,wastewater discharged through using econometrical statistics model of correlation analysis. It concludes that： the correlation of the GDP per capita and volume of waste-gas emission,waste-water,and solid-wastes discharged all fit the shape of quadruplicate model,not the inverted ＂U＂EKC; the curve of total volume of industrial waste gas emission conforms with the left part of the inverted ＂U＂EKC,and has no distinct pots; the curve of total volume of industrial dust emission conforms with the right part of the inverted＂U＂EKC; the curve of volume of domestic waste gas and dust emission conforms with＂U＂＋ inverted＂U＂; the curve of volume of industrial wastewater and COD discharged conforms with the right part of the inverted ＂U＂EKC,volume of industrial COD discharged with a trend of ascend; total volume of domestic waste wastewater discharged conforms with the left part of the inverted ＂U＂EKC with rapid speed; volume of industrial solid wastes discharged conforms with the left part of the inverted ＂U＂EKC,but the fluctuating is gently.

关 键 词：经济增长 环境污染 GDP “三废”排放量 关系曲线 上海 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]