有限单元法在首都圈地区跨断层水准测量监测能力初步评价中的应用  

Application of 3D Finite Element Numerical Simulation in Preliminary Evaluation of Cross-fault Leveling Monitoring Capacity in the Capital Area

作　　者：和平[1] 李志雄[1] 陆远忠[2] 邵志刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [2]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085

出　　处：《地震》2010年第2期89-99,共11页Earthquake

基　　金：科技部国际合作项目(CR11-16);中国地震局地震科学联合基金项目(A07007)

摘　　要：以首都圈地区布设在不同断层上的24处跨断层水准观测为研究对象,建立了地壳分层结构、含不同倾角断层的三维有限元模型,模拟计算了断层倾角和走向对跨断层水准观测结果的影响,并结合跨断层水准测量资料、震例研究及R值预测评分,对首都圈地区跨断层水准测量监测能力进行了初步评价。结果表明：①跨断层水准观测能力一定程度上受倾角和走向因素的共同影响;②跨断层水准布设于倾角30°～70°且走向与地面水平最大位移方向近垂直时具有较好的映震效能;③首都圈跨断层水准监测体系总体而言具备较强的监测能力。With the purpose of establishing more effective cross-fault leveling station,we established three-dimensional finite element models that involve different fault angles and vertical inhomogeneity to study the impact patterns of fault dip and strike on cross-fault leveling monitoring,using the twenty-four cross-fault leveling stations scattered over different faults in the capital area as research objects.Based on cross-leveling data analysis,earthquake case study,and R-value assessment,we carried out preliminary evaluation of cross-fault level monitoring effectiveness in capital area.Result from finite element modeling,earthquake case study,R-value assessment show that： ① the monitoring effectiveness of cross-fault leveling are affected by both fault dip and strike;② the station located across fault with dip between 30°~70° and strike perpendicular to crustal general motion has relatively stronger monitoring effectiveness in terms of earthquake prediction;③ the cross-fault leveling in the capital area possesses satisfactory monitoring capacity in general.

关 键 词：跨断层水准 有限单元法 震例 预测效能 首都圈 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]