1986-2007年中国耕地面积时空变化分析  

A Study on the Temporal-Spatial Changes and Its Influencing Factors of China's Arable Land During 1986-2007

作　　者：卢艳[1] 崔燕平[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与环境学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《信阳师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2010年第2期245-249,共5页Journal of Xinyang Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(06BJL041)

摘　　要：根据统计数据,运用逐步回归方法分析了我国1986-2007年耕地面积的时空变化规律及影响因素.结果表明:中国耕地面积和人均耕地面积一直在减少,1999年以后减速加快.以1996年为界线,中国耕地面积从1980-1990年东部部分省份锐减、中西部大部分省份增加的格局转变为1996-2007年的西部锐减、中部次之,东部减速缓慢的格局.1986-1996年耕地面积减少的主要因素是城市人口和人口自然增长率,1996-2007年主要因素是第二产业产值、全国总户数,1986-2007年主要是城市人口、第二产业总产值、乡镇企业增加值及耕地总量平衡政策的发展.Based on the statistical data and stepwise regression method, this paper examines the temporal-spatial changes at the provincial level during 1986-2007, and analyzes the driving factors of arable land loss before/after the implementation of arable land protection in the mid-1990s. Conclusions are listed as the followings： （1） since 1986 China＇s arable land loss has been going on and worsened after 1999, and arable land per capita decreases linearly; （2） on the provincial level arable land in the East China decreased sharply and increased in the Middle and West China during 1980s, but after 1996 that decreased rapidly in the West China followed by Middle China and East China; （3） Stepwise regression results show that Urban population and population natural increasing rate are the driving factors influencing the loss of arable land during 1986-1996, gross value of secondary industry and national total households during 1996-2007, and gross value-added of rural enterprises, gross value of secondary industry, policy of arable land protection in the mid-1990s and urban population during 1986-2007.

关 键 词：耕地 逐步回归 时空变化 中国 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]