人民币实际有效汇率变动对就业影响的传导渠道分析  

Analysis of Transmission Channels through which RMB REER Adjustment Affects Employment

作　　者：李晓峰[1] 钱利珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《上海金融》2010年第4期71-77,共7页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金课题(课题号:70873098)的资助

摘　　要：当出口在一国经济中占重要地位时,汇率调整就会对就业产生重要影响,在此过程中其传导渠道备受关注。文章构建测算传导渠道的模型,发现:人民币汇率变动会通过出口需求、资源配置和效率渠道对就业产生影响,其中,出口需求渠道的作用最强,效率渠道的作用次之,资源配置渠道的效应最弱。但资源配置渠道的影响效应为正,即汇率升值通过资源配置能带动就业;而出口需求和效率渠道的影响效应为负,即汇率升值将通过出口需求和效率变动减少就业。文章据此提出在当前金融危机冲击下,我国应采取何措施缓解实际汇率变动对我国就业的影响。When export holds an important position in the economy,the exchange rate adjustment will affect employment,and the transmission channels in this process receive attentions.This paper builds a model to estimate three transmission channels,and discovers that REER affects employment through export demand,resource allocation and efficiency channel,and that the export demand channel is the strongest one,efficiency channel plays secondary vital role,resource allocation channel is the weakest one.However,the effect through resource allocation channel is positive,that is,the appreciation of RMB is conductive to the optimal allocation of resources,thereby promoting employment;but the effect through export demand and efficiency channel is negative,namely,exchange rate revaluation reduce employment through the change of export demand and efficiency.According to the above findings,the article proposes suggestions on alleviating the effect of exchange rate adjustment on employment under the shock of financial crisis.

关 键 词：实际有效汇率 就业 传导渠道 

分 类 号：F830.92[经济管理—金融学]