荆州城区生活垃圾产生量的关联度分析与预测  

Prediction and Grey Correlation Analysis of Municipal Domestic Waste Output in Jingzhou City

作　　者：李方敏[1] 高绣纺[1] 于广超[1] 

机构地区：[1]长江大学化学与环境工程学院,湖北荆州434023

出　　处：《环境科学与管理》2010年第4期43-46,共4页Environmental Science and Management

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金(2008CDB377)资助

摘　　要：准确地预测城市生活垃圾产生量,有利于更好地制定城市生活垃圾处置规划。本文利用荆州市1998年-2007年垃圾清运量和社会经济统计资料进行了关联度分析,预测了2010年-2020年荆州城区生活垃圾量。结果表明,GDP、社会消费品零售总额和人均消费支出3个因素是推动垃圾清运量增加的主要因子,其权重分别为0.281、0.386和0.333,预计到2010年、2015年和2020年荆州城区生活垃圾清运量将分别达到31.51万t、38.62万t和48.70万t,其预测结果可为制定荆州市生活垃圾处置规划提供科学依据。Predicting accurately Municipal domestic waste（MDW）output is helpful to make preferably the MDW disposal plan.Grey correlation analysis was carried out on basis of data of MDW Delivering Quantity（MDQ）and statistic data of society and economy from 1998 to 2007 year in Jingzhou city in this paper.The MDQ from 2010 to 2020 were forecasted.The results showed that 3 factors,which are GDP,total retail sales of consumer goods and per capita consumption expenditure,act as main driving factors which affect MDQ enlargement.And weights of the 3 factors are 0.281,0.386 and 0.333 respectively,the MDQ in 2010,2015,2020 are 31.51,38.62 and 48.7×104t respectively.The prediction results could provide scientific basis for MDW disposal planning of Jingzhou city.

关 键 词：垃圾产生量 关联度分析 预测 荆州城区 

分 类 号：X705[环境科学与工程—环境工程]