基于灰色多层次的航空公司飞行安全评价研究  

Airline Flight Safety Risk Assessment Based on Grey Hierarchy Method

作　　者：文军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航飞行学院航空运输管理学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2010年第2期29-34,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(60472128);民航飞行技术与飞行安全科研基地开放基金项目(F2005zd03)

摘　　要：针对影响航空公司飞行安全诸多因素具有的灰色性,引入灰色理论对航空公司飞行安全进行风险评价,从机组、飞机、环境和管理4个因素,提出航空公司飞行安全风险评价的指标体系,采用层次分析法(AHP)确定评价指标权重,建立基于灰色多层次的航空公司飞行安全风险评价模型。根据建立的模型,对国内某航空公司飞行安全状况进行评价,通过分析认为该航空公司的飞行安全介于高风险与较高风险之间,急需加强安全防范,尤其应该加强对飞行安全管理。综合评价的结果为航空公司制定飞行安全措施及预防对策提供科学的依据。In view of there existing lots of grey factors affecting the flight safety of airline companies,the grey theory is introduced to assess the risk of the airline company＇s flight safety.From four factors including crew,aircraft,environment and management,an indicator system for airline company flight safety risk assessment is established,and the weights of evaluation indexes are determined by means of the analytical hierarchy process （AHP）.Based on this,a risk assessment model for airline company flight safety based on grey hierarchy theory is set up.Finally,the flight safety of some airline is assessed with this assessment model,the results show that the airline＇s flight safety ranks above high risk,which indicates that the company should urgently strengthen the safety prevention,control and management.This method provides scientific basis for airlines to take safety measures.

关 键 词：航空公司 飞行安全管理 风险评价 灰色多层次评价 权重 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]