基于突变理论的公共场所集群事件预警分级  

Crowd Gather Alert Classification in Public Spaces Based on Catastrophe Theory

作　　者：范珉[1,2] 刘晓君[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学土木学院,西安710055 [2]空军工程大学工程学院,西安710038

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2010年第2期171-176,共6页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：针对公共场所集群事件,利用突变理论对其预警级别进行研究。选择2005—2008年发生的具有比较典型的集群事件为样本;考虑公共建筑饱和度、人群情绪指标、建筑管理指标和安全事故隐患等因素建立指标体系;运用尖点突变和蝴蝶突变模型进行突变级数的分析和评价,得到预警分级突变级数的大致范围;并运用一个公共场所集群事件发生时预警级别判断的实例进行说明。实例表明,利用突变理论模型,可以为公共场所管理者在人群安全监控决策方面提供初步的预警信息。With the assembly affairs occurring in clusters from 2005 to 2008 as the typical event samples,an indicator system including saturation of public buildings,crowd sentiment indicators,construction management indicators,hidden hazards and other factors,is established.Cusp mutation model and butterfly mutation model are used to analyze and evaluate mutation series,and the general scope of classification mutation series is obtained.A judgment of early warning level is demonstrated by using a cluster event occurring in public places as an example.The example shows that catastrophe theory model can provide early alert information of public places for managers in decision-making of crowd safety control.

关 键 词：集群事件 突变级数评价 尖点突变 蝴蝶突变 预警分级 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU976.56[建筑科学]