中国生态足迹的趋势预测及情景模拟分析  

Trend Forecast and Scenario Simulation Analysis of Ecological Footprints in China

作　　者：张波[1] 王青[1] 刘建兴[2] 顾晓薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学资源与土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110004 [2]福州大学紫金矿业学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《东北大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第4期576-580,共5页Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)

基　　金：教育部优秀中青年教师基金资助项目(1711)

摘　　要：为改善生态足迹静态性和预测功能的不足,采用趋势预测法和多情景模拟分析方法对我国生态足迹做趋势分析和情景模拟.结果表明:我国生态足迹近期仍呈上升趋势;在协调情景下,我国经济发展的资源利用效率增长速度快于GDP增长速度,但近期的资源压力将处在较低的水平;而风险情形下,资源利用效率的改变滞后经济发展,资源压力逐渐加大,不仅对于中国,对全球自然生态系统也将造成巨大冲击和影响;减轻我国未来资源与生态压力的出路在于快速提高资源的利用效率.To improve the ecological footprints in statics and get rid of the deficient function of forecast,a trend analysis and scenario simulation analysis were made for China＇s ecological footprints.The results showed that China＇s ecological footprints still present an upward trend,since the growth rate of the efficiency of resource utilization was faster than GDP growth rate in China＇s economic development,but they were still in coordination and the resources pressure will be at a low level in the near future.Nevertheless,in the risky circumstances the change in resource utilization efficiency lags behind the economic development with the resource pressure increased gradually,which will cause an enormous impact on not only China herself but also the global natural ecosystem.The only way to reduce the resource/ecology pressure in China is to improve rapidly the efficiency of resource utilization.

关 键 词：趋势预测 情景模拟 生态足迹强度 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]