中国能源效率与其影响因素的动态关系研究  

Demonstrational Analysis of the Relationship Between Energy Efficiency and Its Influential Factor in China

作　　者：谭忠富[1] 张金良[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电力能源经济研究所,北京102206

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第4期43-49,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.70571023);教育部博士点基金(No.20070079005);国家新世纪优秀人才计划项目(No.NCET-06-02-08)基金资助

摘　　要：本文利用1978-2006年样本数据,首先通过状态空间模型分析了经济结构、技术进步、能源消费结构和能源价格对能源效率的单向动态变化过程及成因;接着使用向量误差修正模型估算出能源效率与其影响因素之间的长期均衡和短期波动关系;在此基础上利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解模型就我国能源效率与其影响因素之间的动态关系作进一步分析。结果表明:改革开放以来我国能源效率与其影响因素之间存在长期均衡关系,经济体制改革和一些相关政策对能源效率有着深远的影响。从长期均衡关系来看,技术进步对能源效率的正面影响最大,能源价格和一些不可观测变量对能源效率有着促进作用,而经济结构和能源消费结构未能对能源效率起推动作用。从各因素对能源效率的贡献百分比来看,能源价格对能源效率的贡献最大,然后依次是经济结构、能源消费结构和技术进步。First, by using sample data from 1978 to 2006,this artizle studies the dynamic change process of the influence of economic structure,technological advances,energy consumption structure and energy price to energy efficiency and the causes through state space model.Then the article estimates the long-term equilibrium and shortterm fluctuation relationship of energy efficiency and its influential factors through vector error correction. On the basis of the above analyses, We study the dynamic relationship between energy efficiency and its influential factors using impulse reaction function and variance decomposition for a further analysis. The results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between energy efficiency and its influencing factors in China. The economic reform and a number of related policies have a profound effect on energy efficiency since the China＇s reform in 1978. For the longrun equilibrium relationship, the positive effect of technological progress on energy efficiency is the greatest, energy price and some unobserved variables have a positive effect on energy efficiency, but economic structure and energy consumption structure have a negative effect on energy efficiency. For the percentage contribution of various factors to energy efficiency, the energy price makes the largest contribution to the energy fficiency improvement, followed by the economic structure, energy consumption structure and technological progress.

关 键 词：能源效率 状态空间模型 向量误差修正模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]