昆山市耕地变化和粮食安全研究  

Analysis on Farmland Change and Grain Security of Kunshan

作　　者：姚鑫[1,2,3] 杨桂山[1,3] 万荣荣[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京210008 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039 [3]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第4期148-152,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40601098)

摘　　要：采用粮食自给率结合区域最小人均耕地面积对江苏省昆山市20多年来粮食安全状况进行研究,结果表明:昆山市在2000年从粮食产区转型为粮食销区;2006年的粮食自给率仅有23%;生产力提高和作物种植结构的相互制约导致了最小人均耕地面积呈波动变化。在粮食安全未来发展趋势的分析方面,提出了依据相关社会经济指标对昆山市发展阶段进行聚类分析,然后以最新发展阶段数据进行建模的新思路。分析结果表明:昆山的粮食安全相关的社会经济指标变化确实呈明显阶段性;至2011年,昆山市粮食自给率将下降至11%;最小人均耕地面积降低至0.028 hm2,如果该变化趋势得不到有效控制而持续较长时间,到2016年时,粮食自给率和最小人均耕地面积将分别下降至8%和0.012 hm2。依据这些分析及预测,文章提出了坚持土地集约利用、提升耕地生产力、建立和完善粮食流通网络和拓展并强化与粮食产区之间的合作等保障粮食安全、促进地区可持续发展的对策措施。We used grain sufficient ratio as well as minimum farmland acreage per capita to describe the grain security of Kunshan in the recent two decades. Results showed that： the grain self-sufficient ratio of Kunshan dropped below 100% in the year 2000; the grain self-sufficient ratio of Kunshan in 2006 was only 23%; the minimum farmland acreage per capita fluctuated because of the enhance of farmland productivity and the changes in crop structure. In order to predict the developing trend of these indexes related to grain security, a new model which used hierarchical cluster analysis to divide the developing stages of Kunshan according to the variation of social economic indexes and then predicted using data from the recent stage was promoted. The results showed that, the grain self-sufficient ratio of Kunshan will drop to 11% in the year 2011, and the minimum farmland acreage per capita will come down to 0.028 hm^2. If this declining trend is out of control, they will drop to 8% and 0.012 hm^2 respectively in 2016.Based on the analysis and prediction, suggestions, such as enhancing land use intensity, increasing farmland output by applying agricultural techniques, establishing and consummating a network for grain transportation and distribution, and cooperating with grain producing districts, were put forward for Kunshan with an aim to guarantee grain security and ensure regional sustainable development.

关 键 词：粮食安全 粮食自给率 最小人均耕地面积 社会发展阶段 聚类分析 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]