人口红利、空间外溢与省域经济增长  

The Population Dividend, the Spatial Spill-over and the Provincial Economic Growth

作　　者：钟水映[1] 李魁[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2010年第4期14-23,共10页Journal of Management World

摘　　要：20世纪80年代中期以来,我国各地区人口红利出现并且日趋显著,这是否会对所在地经济增长产生影响?由于劳动力流动、地区间商品和服务贸易等的客观存在,人口红利所带来的经济效应是否会外溢?本文利用1990～2007年中国省级面板数据构建空间计量模型,采用系统广义矩估计方法对此进行了实证分析。主要研究结论是:人口红利的显著增加促进了省域经济增长;从区域来看,人口红利对东、中、西的省域经济增长均有显著的促进作用,但彼此之间存在明显差异。东部存在显著的人口红利外溢,但中、西部的外溢效应不显著;从区际来看,东、中之间存在一定的空间"溢出效应",而其他区域之间均不显著。本文同时还发现,地区之间、区域之间的经济增长均存在显著的空间外溢。结合实际,本文对这些发现进行了探讨,并给出了针对性建议。Since the mid-80s in the 20th century, the demographic dividend (DD) has emerged and this phenomenon has become more and more conspicuous. Could this have sway over the local economy? Could the economic effect brought by the DD spill because of the labor mobility and the inter-regional goods and service trade? By the use of China’s provincial panel data of 1990 to 2007 we have constructed a spatial econometric model and made a case study on this model by employing a system GMM estimate. The main conclusions made by us are that the significant increase in the DD has promoted the provincial economic growth, that, regionally, the DD has played a role in noteworthy promotion of the economic growth of China’s eastern, central and western provinces, and that there are also, however, obvious differences among them. The DD spillover in eastern provinces is considerable but it is insignificant in the central and western provinces, and that, among regions, there are certain spatial 'spillover effects' in eastern and central provinces and those effects are slight in other regions. We have also discovered that there exists noticeable spatial spillover in the economic growth in provinces and regions. In this article, we have, by combination with reality, probed these findings and offered our related suggestions.

关 键 词：人口红利 外溢效应 经济增长 空间面板模型 二步法系统广义矩估计 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F127F224