山区公路雪灾预警评估模型初探  

Study of the Snow Disaster Early-Warning Model in the Mountain Road Area

作　　者：李华蓉[1] 赵一[2] 潘建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学土木建筑学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆交通科研设计院,重庆400076

出　　处：《城市勘测》2010年第2期116-119,共4页Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

基　　金：重庆市科技委员会科技攻关项目;编号:CSCT2008AC6113;重庆交通大学青年科学基金课题项目"山区公路冰雪灾害预警关键技术研究";项目号:2008(G)-07

摘　　要：利用主成分分析方法对山区公路雪灾因子进行了分析,得出最大雪深、积雪日数和一场积雪的降水量是决定公路雪灾的主成分;在此基础上,提出了基于主成分的山区公路雪灾强度模型和预警评估模型。运用山区公路雪灾强度模型和雪灾强度分级标准,在预警评估模型的支持下对重庆地区的历史雪灾进行了判别和归类,结果和实情基本吻合。This paper discussed snowstorm factor system of mountain road, found three Principal component factors by the use of principal component analysis. The results show that the maximum depth of snow, the duration of snow cover and the amount of precipitation are the principal factors. At the same time, the Snowstorm intensity model and the snow disaster early-warning model are presented. The model and classification criteria are used to assess and classify the pass snow disasters and the degree of dangerousness in the support of snow disaster early-warning model. The result is generally identical the reality.

关 键 词：雪灾因子 主成分分析 雪灾强度模型 雪灾预警评估模型 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]