基于遥感和GIS的新疆耕地变化及驱动力分析  

Study on the Changes of Cultivated Land and the Driving Factors in Xinjiang Based on RS and GIS

作　　者：陈红[1,2] 吴世新[1] 冯雪力[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2010年第4期614-624,共11页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KSCX1-YW-09);中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KZCX1-YW-09-10)

摘　　要：为了研究新疆耕地变化趋势及其驱动力,利用1990、2000年TM影像及2005、2008年中巴遥感影像及其4期土地利用数据库和野外调查数据,应用遥感和GIS技术,对新疆近20年来耕地数量变化及区域差异进行分析,探讨了影响耕地动态变化的驱动因子。结果表明,近20年来新疆耕地总量一直在增长,但其年均净增速度呈先增后减的趋势,2000—2005年间达到峰值,耕地的动态变化主要是耕地与草地间的相互转化,中东、西北边缘地带的耕地面积相对变化较大。此外,影响新疆耕地开发的主要因素是人口增长和水土资源的限制,同时政策因素也具有一定的调控作用,但随着农业科技的进步,水、土资源对耕地开发的限制作用在逐渐减弱;影响耕地流失的主要因素由自然撂荒和建设占用逐渐转向人为弃耕和生态退耕,经济因素和政策因素成为耕地流失的主要驱动力,自然因素的影响在变小。To study the trend and driving factors of cultivated land changes,with the aid of RS and GIS techniques and based on two TM images of 1990 and 2000,two CBERS images of 2005 and 2008 and on-the-spot investigated materials,this paper analyzed farmland changes in recent two decades and regional differences such as the relative changes of cultivated land in each region and discussed the driving factors accountable for the farmland dynamic changes based on RS interpretation information in Xinjiang.The result shows that the area of cultivated land keeps increasing,while the net increasing speed increases and then decreases,coming to the peak during 2000 to 2005;the area of cultivated land in the margin of mid-eastern and northwestern regions changes more greatly,while the dynamic changes between cultivated land and grassland are the greatest.Furthermore,the main driving factors of exploitation in cultivated land are population growth and the restrictions of water and land resources,but the restrictions of water and land resources relatively decrease due to the development of agriculture technology;the main driving factors of loss of cultivated land change from natural abandonment and farmland occupation for construction purpose to eco-retreated lands and humane abandonment.In a word,economic and policy factors become the main driving factors while natural restrictions become less.

关 键 词：耕地开发 耕地流失 相对变化率 驱动力 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]