基于风险与事件树理论的关键保护评估  

Critical protections assessment based on risk theory and event tree

作　　者：毕天姝[1] 王立春[1] 薛安成[1] 杨奇逊[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2010年第1期2-8,共7页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50607005);国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目(50920105705);高等学校学科创新引智计划资助(B08013);国家自然科学基金重点项目(50837002)

摘　　要：大停电的发生与保护的不正确动作密切相关,升级保护系统是降低大停电发生概率和提高系统整体可靠性的重要途径.如何升级、升级哪些保护装置是一个迫切需要解决的问题,为此提出一种判别关键保护的有效方法.根据保护的误拒动概率模型及保护的动作逻辑与时序建立保护动作事件树;基于保护不正确动作对系统风险的贡献定义保护重要度指标;采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟保护的动作过程,求出保护重要度排序,判别关键保护,为合理、经济地升级保护系统和运行人员监控高风险线路提供前提和依据.IEEE 39节点系统仿真结果验证了该方法的正确性.Studies have shown that the occurrence of blackout is closely related to the incorrect operation of relay protection.Upgrading protection system is an important way to reduce the probability of blackout and enhance the integrated reliability of power system.How to upgrade and which protection devices need to be improved is an urgent problem need to be addressed.To this end,an effective method to assess the critical protections is proposed in this paper.Firstly,a protection action event tree is established under the incorrect action probability models and the action logic of protection.Secondly,a protection importance degree index is defined based on the contribution to the integrated system risk caused by the incorrect action of protection.Finally,the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the operation process of protection.The protection importance degree sequence and critical protections are obtained by this method.It is prerequisite and basis for the rational and economical protection upgrading strategy.The simulation results on IEEE 39-bus test system illustrate the validity of this methodology.

关 键 词：风险理论 连锁跳闸 事件树 蒙特卡罗法 保护重要度 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM77[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]