基于系统动力学的动员潜力释放链运行机理研究  

Study on the Mechanism of Releasing Economic Mobilization Potential Chain of Emergency Resource Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：王成敏[1] 孔昭君[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2010年第2期97-106,共10页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70841008)

摘　　要：在危机状态下,应急资源呈现超常规的供给能力,而超常规供给能力生成过程中的有关要素及其联系所构成的系统,被称为动员潜力释放链。本研究的目的是探索动员潜力释放链的运行机理,掌握动员潜力释放的运行规律。用系统动力学的方法对应急资源的动员潜力释放链进行了建模,并以地震中的帐篷资源为案例,对帐篷资源的动员潜力释放链进行了建模和仿真,结果表明:应急状态下超常规需求是超常规供给能力的核心导向,超常规供给能力取决于生产要素的供给能力、其他资源转变为应急资源用途的转化能力以及应急资源的现有量。Supernormal supply growth of emergency resource is shown in crisis.Releasing Economic Mobilization Potential Chain is defined as a system made up of relevant factors and their interconnections in the process of creating supernormal supply growth of emergency resource.The purpose of this study is to pursuit the mechanism and principle of Releasing Economic Mobilization Potential Chain of emergency resource.In this paper, a model of Releasing Economic Mobilization Potential Chain of emergency resources is built through system dynamics,and Releasing Economic Mobilization Potential Chain of the tents is modeled and simulated based on the case of tents'supply during earthquake relief efforts.It is concluded that supernormal demand is the core orientation of supernormal supply growth,and supernormal supply growth depends on supply growth of production factors,transformation capacity from general resource to emergency resource,and existing capacity of emergency resource.

关 键 词：应急管理 动员潜力释放链 运行机理 系统动力学 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]