东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅳ)——均生函数预测方法  

Study on Forecasting Methods of Corn Heat Index in Northeastern China(Ⅳ)——Mean Generating Function Forecasting Model

作　　者：郭建平[1] 陈玥熤[1,2] 庄立伟 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]广东省气象局,广东广州510080 [3]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《灾害学》2010年第1期27-29,34,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD04B02)

摘　　要：均生函数预测方法是开展环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一。通过对东北地区玉米热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的均生函数预测模型,各模型预测的平均精度基本都达到95%以上,与逐步回归统计模型一致,但普遍要好于GM(1,1)模型,同样可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产。Mean generating function forecasting method is one of the effective methods to forecast changing tendency of environmental factor. On the basis of an analysis on corn heat index in northeastern China, the mean generating function forecasting model of corn heat index changing tendency is set up. The mean precision of each model is higher than 95%, which is identical to the result of stepwise regression model and better than that of GM （ 1, 1 ） model. The forecasting results of mean generating function model can be used to instruct agricultural production.

关 键 词：东北地区 玉米 热量指数 预测 均生函数模型 

分 类 号：S426[农业科学—植物保护]